Former President leads VP Harris 48 percent to 46 percent
Notre Dame students prefer Donald Trump over Kamala Harris in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, a new Irish Rover poll of 705 students found. As the race moves into its final months, the findings highlight a campus more politically divided than at any time in recent history.
Among likely voters, the former president leads the incumbent vice-president by a margin of 47.6 percent to 45.9 percent. Green Party nominee Jill Stein received 0.6 percent while Libertarian Chase Oliver was preferred by 0.3 percent of respondents. 5.5 percent of students indicated that they supported a candidate who was not listed on the ballot.
The Irish Rover poll surveyed 705 likely student voters between September 15 and September 18. The survey was sent to a variety of student dorms, nonpartisan clubs, and distributed in classes. Results were weighted to ensure a representative sample of the Notre Dame student body. The poll has a margin of error of 3.8 percent at a 95 percent confidence level. Full results can be found here.
If accurate, the results of the survey would mark the first time in twelve years that Notre Dame students have preferred the Republican party’s nominee for president. The findings would also signify a monumental shift towards the former president from his showing at Notre Dame just four years ago. In 2020, Joe Biden had the support of 66 percent of Notre Dame students in a poll conducted by Student Government and NDVotes, while Trump got just 29 percent. In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Trump in a similar poll by a margin of 59 percent to 24 percent.
When asked for his club’s reaction to the poll, College Republicans President Elliot Anderson told the Rover, “It is amazing to see a college campus stand by President Trump. We hope that the trend of ultra-liberal colleges is finally coming to an end with the increasing youth support for conservative policies.” College Democrats did not respond to a request for comment.
Professor David Campbell, Packey J. Dee Professor of American Democracy and Director of the Notre Dame Democracy Initiative, commented that the results of the poll “demonstrate that Notre Dame students are a microcosm of the nation as a whole.”
“The student body is closely divided,” he added. “As we head into the home stretch of this hotly contested presidential election, I hope that the students of Notre Dame can demonstrate to the country that it is possible to disagree politically, but do so agreeably.”
Trump’s apparent strength appears to be at least partially driven by widespread dissatisfaction with the job performance of the Biden-Harris administration. Just 35 percent of students polled said they strongly or somewhat approved of the current administration, while 65 percent said that they strongly or somewhat disapproved. The strength of those views is especially notable: Only 5 percent said they strongly approved of President Biden, while 40 percent said they strongly disapproved. The findings match another recent survey by Harvard University that showed Biden’s approval at an anemic 31 percent among young voters.
“The last four years are why my family is on welfare,” one Catholic-identifying male voter said in explaining his vote for Trump.
Another student shared a similar sentiment, stating, “Honestly, the economy really needs to improve from what Biden and Harris are doing because it is becoming very hard to live.”
Though surprising to some, the poll’s results are not the first indication of a rightward shift on Notre Dame’s campus. A political identification survey conducted by Notre Dame Marriage Pact found a 15 percent decline in the share of students identifying as “Democrats, Liberals, or Socialists” from Spring 2021 to Fall 2023. In the same period, the number of students identifying as “Republican, Libertarian, or Conservative” increased by 17 percent.
Another poll published September 20, 2024, by NDTV/Scholastic found Harris ahead in the presidential race by a margin of 57 percent to 43 percent, although this survey had a sample size of just 237 and a significant female oversample. Yet, despite NDTV’s methodological errors, their results still demonstrated a 23-point shift towards former president Trump from 2020.
PJ Butler, who served as the President of Notre Dame College Republicans from 2022–23, attributed the shifts to the increasing academic acceptance of conservative ideas. “Trump has certainly become more palatable to the mainstream than he was in 2016 among a certain subset of ‘elite’ voters,” he explained.
Support for Trump and Harris varied significantly among different demographics within the Notre Dame student body. A notable gap in support between the two candidates emerged along gender lines. Men backed former President Trump by a margin of 57 percent to 35 percent, while women supported Harris 57 percent to 38 percent. This finding is consistent with growing evidence of a polarized gender gap among young voters. A NYT/Siena poll last month found a 39 point difference in candidate preference between 18–29 year old men and women, the largest of any generation.
Many female supporters of Harris emphasized their disgust with Donald Trump’s personal conduct and perceived opposition to gender equality. One anonymous student, a Catholic-identifying female who supports Harris, wrote, “As a woman, I feel like it is imperative that the rights of all women are protected and we don’t regress back to the women’s suffrage era.” Male voters, on the other hand, expressed admiration for Trump’s personal brand. One student, Joe Mura, told the Rover he was supporting Trump because “he’s super chill” and “very relatable.”
An even bigger gap emerged when considering religious affiliation. Self-described Catholics, who make up around 80 percent of Notre Dame’s total student body, said they supported Trump by a margin of 56–36 percent. Among those who identified with a different religion—or none at all—Harris had a colossal 75–22 percent advantage.
Catholic men backed Trump by a robust 63–28 percent margin, while Catholic women narrowly supported Harris 50–46 percent. However, non-Catholic members of both sexes had a strong preference for Harris, who led Trump 70–29 percent with non-Catholic men and 80–16 percent among non-Catholic women. Harris saw her strongest support among women who identified as agnostic or atheist.
Several students drew on their religious beliefs to explain why they were voting for either Trump or Harris. An agnostic-identifying female, for example, told the Rover she was voting for Harris “on the basis of [which candidate] respects individual rights, promotes peaceful transitions of power, and supports the working class, including those of differing legal status.”
On the other hand, Luke Woodyard, a Catholic-identifying male, told the Rover he would be voting for Trump to block “the abolition of the family, society, norms, and truth in favor of an individualistic, relativistic society” that could be advanced under a Harris presidency.
The Rover’s poll also surveyed students on which political issue they believe to be most important to their vote. On this question, 28 percent of students indicated that they viewed the economy as their top issue, while 26 percent said abortion, 14 percent democracy, 7 percent foreign policy, 6 percent immigration, 6 percent climate change, 4 percent gun policy, 3 percent LGBT issues, 2 percent education, 2 percent healthcare, 1 percent crime, and 1 percent race relations.
Harris held wide advantages among those who prioritized democracy, foreign policy, climate change, LGBT issues, education, gun policy, healthcare, and race relations. On the other hand, Trump was preferred by voters who cared most about crime, immigration, the economy, and abortion.
On a national level, those supporting the Democratic Party have tended to name abortion as their top issue, but this dynamic was flipped at Notre Dame. Of those who prioritized abortion in their voting decision, 69 percent said they supported Trump. Notably, 53 percent of women in this group also indicated they backed the former president.
Former Notre Dame Right to Life President Merlot Fogarty (’24) offered an explanation for the unusual abortion dynamic in the poll: “This student poll, I think, highlights in particular the conviction of pro-life students at Notre Dame and their commitment to voting for candidates who know abortion is a grave evil.”
Fogarty continued, “While the Democratic Party may have made abortion the biggest issue on their national platform, most students at a Catholic university do not support their extreme abortion-until-birth policies. Hopefully, this means Notre Dame students will continue to trend pro-life.”
Many poll respondents echoed Fogarty’s sentiments. “I really do think abortion is the root of a lot of problems in this country,” said one student, a female Catholic-identifying Trump voter.
Despite trailing overall, there were some positive indicators for Vice President Harris in the poll. 60 percent of Notre Dame students, including 30 percent of Trump supporters, viewed Harris as the winner of the September 10 presidential debate. 30 percent of students believed the debate was a tie, and just 10 percent felt that Trump had won.
One freshman student, Jack Rankin, cited the debate as an important factor in his decision to vote for Harris. “I know Harris will be a repeat of Biden, but I liked Biden’s climate action and Trump came off as crazy during last week’s debate,” he said.
Harris also enjoyed a stronger showing among Democrats than Trump had with Republicans. 97 percent of Democrats on campus support the vice president, compared to only 88 percent of Republicans voting for the former president.
Finally, despite Trump’s overall lead in the vote, Harris received better ratings among students when asked if they personally liked or disliked either candidate. 40 percent of students said that they had a very or somewhat favorable view of Harris, while 60 percent had a very or somewhat negative opinion of her. Trump polled 37 percent and 63 percent respectively.
This figure is attributable to the fact that the vast majority of Harris’s voters saw her favorably, while some of Trump’s supporters preferred him simply as the better of two bad options. Indeed, Trump enjoyed a significant advantage amongst voters who indicated they viewed both candidates unfavorably.
One student who is voting for Trump commented: “I very much hate Donald Trump’s character. However, he has infinitely better policy.”
He concluded, “And at the end of the day, I have to choose policy over character.”
Shri Thakur is a junior studying economics and constitutional studies. He is in the process of obtaining a long-stay visa for France as an escape plan if the election goes poorly. He can be reached at sthakur3@nd.edu to discuss further.
Sam Marchand is a sophomore studying political science and finance from Beaumont, TX. He squanders much of his spare time by reading the Current Events section of Wikipedia preparing arguments for ND Speech & Debate, of which he serves as president. He can be reached at smarcha3@nd.edu.
This article was originally published on Sept. 25, 2024.
The online version of this article was updated just prior to publishing and appears different in the print edition.
Photo Credit: Irish Rover
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