Republicans and Democrats set to face off over the budget, jobs, and health care
After two years of Democratic control, America’s government is once again divided. What strategies will the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and the Democratic-controlled Senate and White House choose to pursue in the coming weeks and months?
In separate interviews during the week of January 14, Notre Dame political science professors David Nickerson and Michael Zuckert discussed the partisan nature of American political rhetoric, the repeal of the health care law, spending cuts, job creation measures, and the possibility of a government shutdown of the budget.
The Tucson tragedy has calmed harsh political rhetoric in the short term, but it is unclear whether the fierce rhetoric that came from both liberals and conservatives during the last two years will return.
Zuckert said that the initial rush to judgment and finger-pointing after the shooting was regrettable but that it also “called everyone’s attention to the fact that there is a kind of poisonous political atmosphere out there and it’s not good even if it had nothing to do with this particular event.”
According to Zuckert, the post-election situation will contribute more to future bipartisanship than the Tucson events. He cited the tax cut compromise that was reached during the lame duck session last year, the president’s staff shake up, which brought centrist William Daley into the White House as chief of staff, and President Obama’s recent op-ed in The Wall Street Journal, which called for cutting unnecessary bureaucratic red tape, as reasons to believe there will be some bipartisan agreements in the next two years.
Nickerson said it is difficult to tell if the Tucson events will lead to a sustained period of calmed political rhetoric. He was pessimistic about the prospect of bipartisan accomplishments because both parties are strongly set on the 2012 elections.
“It’s not in the Republicans’ interest to work with the Democrats,” Nickerson stated.
He said it will be even harder to get agreement on legislation now that the Republicans control the House and have narrowed the margin in the Senate. He thinks that some legislation will go through, such as short-term tax cuts or subsidies for small businesses, but the laws passed will not be far-reaching and will add to the national debt.
Nickerson said the Republicans may try, but will not succeed, in passing large spending cuts. In his view, entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare are so popular that it would amount to political suicide for Republicans to propose major overhauls of either program. Likewise, he claimed that another big portion of the budget, defense spending, is unlikely to be significantly reduced, partly because of the domestic jobs the industry provides.
“Military contractors have very self-consciously placed military factories all over the country,” Nickerson asserted.
Any cuts in the budget will be minimal and will not significantly reduce the national debt, both professors said.
The Republicans will try to avoid mistakes they made the last time they took control of the House in the mid-1990s, which reached a boiling point in the 1995 government shutdown over the budget. Zuckert said he does not expect a government shutdown, but does expect both sides to make their case strongly before any potential compromise occurs. He believes that politicians may start to feel that the public wants them to get something done instead of having something as serious as a government shutdown take place.
Nickerson, on the other hand, said the probability of another government shutdown is “moderately high.” A major difference between now and 1995 is the amount of conservative media. He said the Republicans might feel that they could win a fight over the budget this time since they would have substantial media exposure with outlets like Fox News, talk radio, and conservative blogs.
The winner of a potential budget shutdown politically would depend on the circumstances and what each side was arguing for, Nickerson said.
House Republicans have started the process of repealing the health care law that was passed last year, a move that may pass the House but is doomed in the still Democrat-controlled Senate. Nickerson and Zuckert both commented that the move by the Republicans is simply political grandstanding that has no chance of reaching the president’s desk.
The move to repeal the health care law will probably last a few weeks before it will inevitably die, both professors said. Even though the Republicans themselves probably know that the move will not get very far, it allows them to satisfy their base and claim they upheld one of their signature campaign promises to the American people.
One possible strategy for Republicans is to repeal unpopular parts of the health care law.
Nickerson pointed out that although the overall law does not poll very well, many of its major parts do. Similarly, Zuckert said there could be bipartisan support for changes of some parts, such as unnecessary and burdensome paperwork requirements. He concluded, however, that any changes will be minimal and will not considerably alter the law.
Contact Mickey Gardella at mgardell@nd.edu.
