Former president of Mexico’s Federal Electoral Commission (IFE or Instituto Federal Electoral) and political scientist Luis Carlos Ugalde lectured on elections and democracy in Mexico on April 26. Ugalde is a Reagan Fascell Democracy Fellow at the National Endowment for Democracy in Washington, DC.
In 1977, Mexico went through a period of political reform with the introduction of congressional oversight powers. Several further electoral reforms occurred between 1986 and 1996, including a tax-funded party and campaign system, the introduction of the Independent Electoral Institute (IFE), and the institution of an electoral disputes mechanism or an electoral tribune.
Ugalde said that the consequences of electoral reform were transparent and legal elections, a more level playing field for candidates, and party pluralism, resulting in an increase in the role of parties from 1970 to 2009. Since 1997, no one political party has held a majority.
Uglade argued that Mexico’s democratization focused almost exclusively on electoral changes, neglecting the institutional reforms needed to have a functional and liberal democracy. The result is that the governmental system is still fueled by traditional patron-client incentives and vested interests, which constrain further political change and economic development.
Ugalde cited the 2000 presidential election as the inauguration of democracy in Mexico. The election was competitive, and, since Vincenete Fox was the clear winner, there were no legal challenges to the outcome of the election.
Eleven years after this symbolic election, Ugalde finds the results are disappointing. He cites an increase in corruption levels and clientelism, a continued problem. While Mexico’s economy has gone through moderate growth, competition is lacking. Security and drug-trafficking are major problems and US and Mexico relations have stagnated. Ugalde admits that the economy has stabilized and that extreme poverty is declining but that, “the results are more negative than positive in my opinion.”
Ugalde questions whether the problem is one of quality of democracy or of governmental performance. Problems include a weak rule of law and unequal access to the criminal justice system, ineffective vertical accountability in regard to nomination procedures and party financing, and weak horizontal accountability at the state level which deals with public expenditures and politicized courts and tribunals.
The controversy over the vote of the previous presidential election in 2006 created a political climate that does not bode well for the 2012 presidential election. Ugalde, who was president of the Independent Electoral Institute at the time of the 2006 election, cites several factors that will shape the fate of the 2012 election. He predicts that a new electoral code over regulating political advertising will result in negative and “dirty” campaigning. He believes that the performance of the Mexican economy and perceptions about the fight against drug-trafficking will define the winner.
For Ugalde, real change in Mexico’s democratic system will only come as a response to an external shock, which he suggests could be an increase in violence, a fiscal crisis, or the drying up of Mexico’s oil. Despite the problems with Mexico’s democracy, Ugalde states, “I believe Mexico continues to be a solid state; it is not a failed state. I think the Mexican people are happy.”
The event was sponsored by the Kellogg Institute for International Studies and the Institute for Latino Studies.
Stephanie House went to Mexico for a day once and wants to go back. Contact her at shouse1@nd.edu.
