Scott Englert, Politics Editor

The United States’ foreign policy concerns are numerous, including continued violence in Afghanistan, an increasingly confrontational Russia, and nuclear weapons in Iran and North Korea. Thankfully, the United States continues to seek solutions.

On Tuesday, February 19, the Notre Dame International Security Program continued its speaker series in cooperation with the Hap Arnold Lecture Series of the Grand Strategy Program at the US Air Force’s Air War College. The lecture addressed the topic, “The Asia Question Through a European Lense” and included research presentations from three AWC students. The topic is especially relevant given President Obama’s 2010 decision to make a “strategic pivot” to Asia.

Group Captain (Colonel) Clive Blount, Royal Air Force, UK, began the lecture by discussing his paper, “Special Relationship?  What Are the Strategic Choices Available to the United Kingdom After the United States Pivot to Asia.”  Blount first described Britain’s Asian presence.

“Our military footprint is small,” he said. However, the Royal Air Force “maintain[s] important diplomacy connections.” In addition, Britain is part of the European Union, “the world’s largest economy” and subsequently maintains additional ties to China via trade.
Furthermore, Britain’s cultural links to Asia are strong. Blount informed the audience that the Asian diaspora makes up a “significant minority” of Britain’s population and agencies such as the BBC are prevalent in Asia.

Such facts present Britain with an array of strategic options. Blount believes Britain’s influence can help the United States in improving ties with China. In conclusion, the colonel believes the Asian pivot reflects a changing world and should be viewed positively.
“It’s not so much a pivot to Asia but a pivot to the world,” Blount commented. He believes that for Britain and the EU, “the Asian pivot is an opportunity.”

Next, Lieutenant Colonel Laurel “Buff” Burkel, USAF, discussed her paper, “Applying NATO Concepts and Lessons Learned to the US Rebalance Towards the Asia-Pacific.” In accordance with the title, Laurel believes NATO’s past initiatives can provide a strong model for how the United States can shift resources to Asia. One example is NATO’s post-Cold War relationship with Russia. The Lieutenant Colonel believes this relationship “can inform a similar approach to the United States’ interaction with China.”

In conclusion, “leveraging examples from one of the most successful alliances in history” will benefit the United State’s Asian strategy and policy,” Laurel stated.

Finally, Colonel Shannon Caudill, USAF, presented his paper, “Russia’s Strategic Choice: Bandwagon with China or Balance with the West.” He began by describing how China’s recent resurgence contributed to Russia’s upcoming “strategic dilemma.”

In summary, the colonel professed that If the United States is truly serious about attempting to “hedge against China power…it must seriously consider making Russia part of a coherent strategy.”

However, the fruition of such a relationship is ultimately dependent upon understanding Russia’s security position. Caudill described how Russia’s population is expected “to decrease from 139 to 109 million people;” consequently, Caudill believes Russia will become increasingly dependent upon nuclear weapons.

Russia’s decline is even more relevant given China’s increasing population. Caudill described how compared to China, “Russia is thinly populated;” in addition, “Russia’s strategic oil and natural gas reserves are located in the sparsely populated Siberian population.” Consequently, Caudill explained how Moscow fears that Chinese immigrants will eventually cause “Russia to stop being Russia.”

Fortunately, Caudill also believes that the United States has already begun exploiting such fears and, subsequently, improving its alliances with Russia. Caudill concluded, “For Russia, demographics are destiny […] In the end, Russia will choose a benign relationship with Europe.”

Recognizing this fact, Caudill urged that “US policymakers must set the stage for a strategic relationship.”

Caudill, like his fellow lecturers, demonstrated an insightful presentation into understanding the United States’ “Asian pivot” and making sense of what seem to be tumultuous times.

Scott Englert is a senior political science and economics major looking forward to winter’s end. For thoughts on when that may be, America’s strategic pivot, or any other thoughts or comments, please contact him at senglert@nd.edu.