Analyzing the 2014 gubernatorial election results in the Lonestar State

The 2014 gubernatorial elections produced some surprising results: In several typically Democratic states such as Illinois, Maryland, and Massachusetts, Republican candidates upset Democratic incumbents.  Some Democrats had hopes of winning unlikely gubernatorial elections, but were unsuccessful.  Wendy Davis of Texas was one of these Democrats.

Texas State Senator Wendy Davis gained her fame after an 11-hour filibuster in 2013.   Davis attempted to stop pending legislation during a special session of the state legislature that would enact more abortion restrictions in the state of Texas.  She attracted national attention from progressives and women’s rights advocates, and used this fame to run for governor of Texas against Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott in the 2014 election.

Davis built her campaign on women’s rights, but this strategy proved unsuccessful.  Some analysts have argued that this was not a close race from the start, given the current conditions of politics in Texas, while others argued that Davis’ campaign was ineffective.

While the media can often be an influential factor in the outcome of elections, Adam Schiffer, Professor of Political Science at Texas Christian University, does not believe the media was a factor in this particular election.

“Though election losers often blame the press for their defeats—and indeed I’ve heard many Davis supporters complain about her coverage—I didn’t see any obvious favoritism of one candidate or the other in this race,” Schiffer told the Rover.

Schiffer explained that the particular factors in this election resulted in little media coverage and did not help the Davis campaign: “Given that Davis was swimming upstream against a Republican-leaning electorate, she would have needed heavier coverage to make inroads into the consciousness of persuadable voters.”

Another damaging factor for Davis was the inability of the Democratic Party to excite the base and mobilize voters.

“Davis’ campaign utterly failed to turnout Democratic voters,” Schiffer explained.  “Overall, Texas had the second-worst voter turnout in the nation—28 percent of eligible voters—and by far the worst for a state with a gubernatorial race.”

Donald Jackson, Herman Brown Professor of Political Science at Texas Christian University, analyzed Davis’ campaign strategy for the Rover, asserting that her focus on women’s rights was ineffective in Texas, a conservative state.

“Wendy’s efforts to run chiefly on the fame she achieved through her filibuster might have been consistent with a National Democratic campaign elsewhere, but that does not work in Texas,” Jackson told the Rover.  “Even if she attempted to base her campaign on support for women’s rights, in Texas she appeared to take the side of Planned Parenthood on termination of pregnancies.”

Morris Drumm, Professor of political science at Texas Christian University, also noted that Davis’ campaign strategy was ineffective. “Her biggest problem was she never caught on with middle class Texans, she was roundly accepted by minority groups who traditionally in Texas do not vote,” he told the Rover.  “In addition, one cannot base their campaign on ‘pink tennis shoes’ and ‘a filibuster against an issue’ (on a law she later voted in favor of I might add) and hope to win.”

Jackson agreed that Davis did not adequately mobilize her base: “She needed to draw very strong support from women voters in Texas, but she failed to achieve that breakthrough,” he stated.

“[S]he did not come across as a strong or compelling mother figure—or as a strong representative for women,” Jackson continued.  “Much of her legal education was supported by her former husband, Jeff Davis, and he provided support for her children as well.  She did not make it on her own.”

Drumm also commented on Davis’ image problem preceding the election.  “Ms. Davis’ problem from the get go was her not being transparent in her resumé.”  Drumm cited Davis’ misrepresentation of both her financial situation throughout her life and her relationship with her former husband.

Regardless of Davis’ campaign strategy, both Schiffer and Jackson explained to the Rover how challenging it is for a Democrat to win a statewide election in the red state of Texas.

“It is very difficult for any Democrat to win a statewide race in Texas these days,” Jackson concluded.  “Even trying to get to 40 [percent] of the popular vote in a non-presidential year is very difficult.”

“The basic dynamics of this race were simple,” Schiffer elaborated.  “Wendy Davis was running for office in a Republican-leaning state that has not elected a Democrat to any statewide office since the 1990s.”

Drumm echoed this sentiment.  “Wendy Davis never had a chance in Texas; the conservative mood in this state is so huge that would be an uphill challenge for anyone liberal,” he stated.

Schiffer also claimed that national conditions affected this race.

“To win, she would have needed national conditions that strongly favored Democrats,” Schiffer concluded. “Instead, President Obama is unpopular, the economic recovery has failed to reach the middle class, and Republicans won from coast-to-coast, including in very liberal states like Massachusetts and Maryland.”

“I had the impression that the national party had given up on her well before the election,” Jackson added.

 

Hailey Vrdolyak is a junior political science and theology major who is perplexed by the phenomenon of puppets.  If anyone would care to explain this, please email her at hvrdolya@nd.edu.