Republicans take the Senate, gain in the House after Nov. 4 elections

 

The midterm elections on Tuesday, November 4, caused quite a stir in the news among Republicans and Democrats alike.  With the resulting turnover in both houses of Congress, the media was eager to analyze the results and understand their importance for the political situation in America.

Before the midterms, the Republican Party controlled the House of Representatives, but needed to win 6 net seats to gain control of the Senate.  In other words, Republicans had to win 6 Senate seats held this term either by a retiring Democrat or an incumbent in order to become the majority in Congress.

In the elections, the Democratic Party lost control of the Senate for the first time since 2006. Republican candidates won 7 previously Democratic seats in West Virginia, Arkansas, South Dakota, Colorado, Montana, Iowa, and North Carolina.  A runoff election will take place on December 6 for one of Louisiana’s US Senate seats, which, if Bill Cassidy defeats incumbent Mary Landrieu, would give the Republicans another seat.

The Democrats also suffered significant losses in the House of Representatives. Republicans took control of the House in 2010, and in the 2014 election, they widened the margin of control by picking up 10 more seats.  The Republican Party will hold 246 of the 435 seats in the House, their largest majority since the 1940s.

The Republicans also succeeded on the state level, gaining control in the gubernatorial races. Republican candidates for governor won four contests in previously Democratic seats in Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Arkansas.

Geoffrey Layman, Professor of Political Science at Notre Dame, analyzed the results of the elections for the Rover.

“[T]he president’s party nearly always loses seats in Congress in midterm elections,” Layman explained, “and the seat losses tend to be particularly large in midterm elections occurring during a president’s second term.”

“[P]eople are as dissatisfied with the performance of American government as they have been in decades,” Layman continued.  “That helped Republicans in two ways.  One way (and the most important way) is that the person who will get most of the blame when things are going poorly is the president and the president right now is a Democrat.

“The other way is that when people are distrustful of and dissatisfied with the government, messages calling for a more limited role for government in American society should resonate better than messages calling for more government action,” Layman explained.  “Since the GOP is the party of limited government, it will tend to do better in this sort of an environment.”

While President Obama claimed in a press conference last Wednesday that the election outcomes were not a reflection on his presidency or the effectiveness of his policies, he admitted that “the American people sent a message.”

Layman said last week’s elections expressed disappointment with the workings of current government:  “I think they say that the American people are very dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country and they were looking to take it out on someone.  That ‘someone’ is likely to be candidates of the president’s party.”

While the elections displayed a desire for change, it remains to be seen if the new makeup of Congress will be conducive to results.  Layman does not think much change is likely. “Having both houses of Congress controlled by one party and a White House controlled by the other party generally is not a recipe for legislative productivity,” he said.

“[S]ince Republican success in the 2014 elections was based in large part on voter dissatisfaction with President Obama, I’m not sure that the Republicans in Congress have

a lot of incentive to work with and compromise with him—at least not any more incentive than they had before,” Layman continued.

However, there still is a chance for more productivity from the new Congress.

“On the other hand, the Republicans know (or should know) that the public’s anger at government is based on the government’s inability to solve problems and if that continues, public ire now is more likely to be directed at them since they control both congressional chambers,” said Layman.

“Also, President Obama knows (or should know) that his legacy as president depends partly on his ability to get more done in the second half of his second term than he did in the first half,” he concluded, “So, there may be more incentive for the two parties to work together more.”

 

Hailey Vrdolyak is a junior living in Pangborn Hall who has a hard time locking and unlocking doors.  To help her (and her roommate) out, send her an email at hvrdolya@nd.edu.