Projections of the House race have Republicans keeping a narrow majority

The Republican Party won total control of government on November 5, maintaining their hold on the House of Representatives while flipping the Senate and Presidency. The result marked a victory over the incumbent Biden Administration and a major political comeback for former president Donald J. Trump.  

Republicans flipped the U.S. Senate for the first time since 2021. After the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans held 49 seats while Democrats held 51 after the runoff election in Georgia went to Democrat Raphael Warnock. Republicans in the 2024 election picked up four seats, flipping seats in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, giving the GOP a 53-seat majority. Democrats held key seats in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin, even as Trump carried all four states.

In Pennsylvania, businessman Dave McCormick defeated longtime U.S. Senator Bob Casey Jr. in one of the more significant upsets of the night. Casey, the son of famous Catholic politician Bob Casey Sr., began his career as a pro-life Democrat before transitioning into an unapologetic supporter of abortion rights after the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization verdict. 

Casey has thus far refused to concede his race, despite losing by over 17,000 votes. Instead, Democratic commissioners in Montgomery, Centre, Philadelphia, and Bucks Counties are illegally counting undated absentee ballots declared invalid by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court in an effort to overturn the election result. Officials on Trump’s campaign, including campaign manager Chris LaCivita, have vowed legal punishments for those engaging in this fraudulent scheme once Trump returns to power. 

An O’Neill Hall junior from Pennsylvania expressed his indignation about the actions of Democratic officials in his home state. “We were told for years that Republicans were a threat to democracy, that they were Nazis, that Trump committed an insurrection. And here Democrats are, in broad daylight, counting votes that have been straight-up declared illegal. What these people are doing is unconscionable,” he declared.

The final contest to be called was for control of the House of Representatives, which the GOP narrowly held. As of publishing, DDHQ projects Republicans maintaining control of the House, with at least 220 seats being won by the Republicans. If current leads and projections hold true, Republicans are expected to control 221 seats with the Democrats holding the other 214. 

House races are outstanding only in California, where officials have failed to complete the counting of ballots two weeks after the conclusion of the election. In California’s 45th district, late-arriving ballots have put Democrat Derek Tran ahead of incumbent Republican Congresswoman Michelle Steel, while in the 13th District, Republican Rep. John Duarte continues to lead his Democratic challenger Adam Gray.

In the already-called races, Republicans have flipped four House seats including Colorado’s 8th, Michigan’s 7th, Alaska’s at-large and Pennsylvania’s 7th and 8th districts. Democrats have also flipped seats in the House including California’s 27th and Oregeon’s 5th districts. 

When asked about the results of the 2024 election at large, Professor Geoffrey Layman, the chair of the Department of Political Science, said to the Rover, “We all expected it to be a toss-up.” He continued, “It was slightly surprising that Trump won fairly convincingly. … He didn’t win in a landslide, but we knew the result by midnight on Tuesday night and I don’t think that was expected.” Layman also said that “the House and Senate elections have gone almost exactly as expected.” 

Layman further commented on some of the potential implications of Republicans having unified control at the federal level: “The Republicans will push quite hard in the first 100 days—as any party would.” Some of the issues Layman mentioned Republicans would push for included the “deportation of undocumented immigrants … some tax cuts, eliminating taxes on tips,[and] efforts to increase tariffs.” He also mentioned, “There will be action to extricate the United States from the Ukraine-Russia conflict and perhaps … leading to President Trump trying to broker a democratic solution.”

A member of ND College Democrats told the Rover, “I’m interested to see what the next four years under the Trump administration will look like with the GOP in control.” He added, “I’m hopeful that the government will be able to remain cooperative and productive.”

On the other hand, a board member of the College Republicans stated that the Republican victory in Congress marked a repudiation of the Democrat agenda of “mass third-world immigration, radical abortion extremism, transgenderism, and runaway spending.” 

“Two impeachments. Two assassination attempts. And now, two terms,” the board member continued. “We are hopeful he will use this powerful mandate to roll back neoliberal exploitation of our society, including through mass-deportations, tariffs, and the elimination of DEI programs.” 

David Campbell, the Packey J. Dee Professor of American Democracy and director of the Notre Dame Democracy Initiative, told the Rover, “I think history has shown that when any party has unified control, they should tread carefully because there is the tendency to assume they have a stronger mandate than they really do and that is true for both Democrats and Republicans.” 

Campbell continued, “History does show that midterm elections are typically not kind to incumbents” and if Republicans want to avoid “shellacking” at midterms, they ought to “tread carefully and not overassume what their mandate is.”

While the elections grant Republicans significant power in Congress and the White House, unity among the caucus in the House and Senate will be crucial if they hope to pass legislation that Trump, and the GOP at large, campaigned on.

Ella Yates is a sophomore studying philosophy, political science, and theology from Western Springs, Illinois. She has recently discovered a newfound love for playing Wii golf with her roommates. For anyone interested in challenging her, she can be reached at eyates4@nd.edu. 

Photo Credit: Wikimedia Commons

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