Anti-establishment candidates in both parties surge in Iowa

Politicians have dubbed it flyover country. But what does Middle America really think about presidential politics in 2016? On February 1, the Iowa caucuses will once again serve as an early indicator of which candidates might win each party’s nomination for president.

“The Iowa caucuses are a really important step in catapulting and sinking candidates in both parties to the forefront or the back of their respective races, which makes keeping up with both races really interesting to watch,” Cesar Hernandez, Vice President of College Democrats, told the Rover.

“Americans are fed up with a permanent political class that makes all kinds of promises to get elected, and then ignores the voters once they’re in office,” said Laura Hollis, Associate Professor of Business Law and Concurrent Associate Professor of Law.

“They’re disgusted with politicians who care more about what the media thinks about them than what the voters think. They’re tired of a system that prioritizes everything and everyone except Americans’ needs,” she continued.

Anti-establishment candidates in both parties are poised to succeed in Iowa. For the Democrats, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont has been gaining ground on the well-funded Hillary Clinton campaign, and for the Republicans, businessman Donald Trump and Senator Ted Cruz of Texas continue to trounce longtime party favorites such as Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio.  

“It’s said that no one can win the presidency without winning Iowa and New Hampshire,” Hollis added. “I think all of the ‘conventional wisdom’ is rot at this point.”

After months of criticism, Hillary Clinton’s impressive lead has narrowed. Sanders has called for the investigation of Clinton’s role in the Benghazi scandal to “proceed unimpeded.” He has labeled Bill Clinton’s extramarital affair with a White House intern “deplorable,” undermining Clinton’s “war on women” strategy. Moreover, he has castigated Mrs. Clinton for her cozy ties with Wall Street.

In the Democratic debate hosted by NBC earlier this month, Sanders stated, “Secretary Clinton—you’ve received over $600,000 in speaking fees from Goldman Sachs in one year.

“I find it very strange that a major financial institution that pays $5 billion in fines for breaking the law, not one of their executives is prosecuted, while kids who smoke marijuana get a jail sentence,” the Vermont Senator continued.

Clinton, for her part, has blasted Sanders, a self-described socialist who joined the Democratic Party in 2015, for his free public college plan and the cost of his proposed government-run health care system. According to Forbes, this plan would increase federal spending by at least $28 trillion dollars.

On the Republican side, the Iowa race appears deadlocked between Trump and Cruz. Recently, Trump has questioned Cruz’s presidential eligibility because Cruz was born in Canada in 1970 to an American mother and a Cuban father.

“A lot of people are expecting Ted Cruz to do well in Iowa,” explains Hollis. “I suspect that this is behind the recent spate of attacks by Trump — he’s afraid that a strong showing by Cruz will lend credence to the belief that while Trump has been a great gadfly for certain issues, Cruz is seen as more ‘serious’ presidential material.”

Despite their differences, Trump and Cruz share similar views in many areas that have resonated with the people of Iowa.

Peter Fox, President of College Republicans, explained to the Rover, “Trump and Cruz have campaigned in very similar fashions, lending to their position atop the polls. Both have relied heavily on anti-political correctness, using direct and sometimes inflammatory language to communicate with voters who are frustrated at bureaucratic inefficiency, bolstered by an emerging PC culture, that muddles often simple issues.”

David Campbell, Chair of the Political Science Department, predicted the outcome of the Iowa caucus. “Based on history, a cultural conservative candidate nearly always does well on the Republican side, and this year that appears to be Ted Cruz,” he said.

“The great unknown is whether Trump’s supporters will show up to caucus. Among the establishment candidates, Rubio will likely get enough support to remain viable, but will be a distant third place,” he noted.

Following the democratic debate in Charleston, South Carolina, Clinton maintained a four-point lead over Sanders in Iowa, but as much as a 25-point lead nationally, according to polls.

“The enthusiasm of Sanders’s supporters suggests that he will give Hillary Clinton a run for her money, but the latest projections still put him behind her,” added Campbell.  “If I had to guess, I would predict that Clinton will win, but not convincingly.”

“I don’t think this election will be anything like prior elections” concluded Hollis. “All bets are off.”

Michael Singleton is majoring in Finance and Applied Math.  His favorite breakfast food is cinnamon donuts at Rise ’n Roll Bakery. Email him at msingle1@nd.edu.